Jan 26th 2015, 0:53:28
Firstly - Marshal loves to answer questions. Take anything he says with a pinch of salt.
Secondly, the game now has a random factor built in. Add ten per cent to your break and you will take out the random factor rather more than nine hundred and ninety nine times out of a thousand.
So first spy (which means paying attention to spies from about turn eighty or ninety onwards) and then calculate. Convert tanks and turrets to troops, add ten percent for everyone except Republics (to take out the random factor), multiply by Weapons tech and gov.t bonus if target is a Dictator, add defence bonus if target has used bonus points to gain that advantage (be careful with your spy report, the defence bonus shows up at first but not after you have closed the report down), spy to establish what defence allies add (they send 25% of turrets, troops and tanks but w/o any bonuses), look at your offence alles (also 25% w/o bonuses), allow for your own Weapons tech, and if you are using PS divide by 3 (SS divide by 2). And now you have the break. :)
There are lots of good spreadsheets but I like to use a calculator.