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Apr 22nd 2010, 17:52:49
farmers currently don't sell food mid set really.... so it won't affect a farmers income
if "everybody knows" that the market will crash as soon as somebody dumps many techers & early destockers will
1) try to diversify
2) try to dump first
#1 will result in a lower bushel price
#2 will result in bushel peak being lowered and drawn out;
late stockers will
1) try to hold on as long as possible without buying
2) still buy bushels
these will result in a lower bushel price, but perhaps a protracted peak
The long and short of it is this:
1) total volume of supply will remain similar when integrated over the bushel peak
2) total volume of demand will remain similar when integrated over the bushel peak
the actual shape of the bushel peak will probably change; but if the volumes of both supply and demand are the same... your peak may move or shift, but there should still be a bushel peak to some extent.
The *real* change, imho, will be the ability of demo's (and other people with lots of cash hanging around) to play the market.
Say you're a demo farmer; you put a standing order at $40 and sell your bushels at $41; you do this a few times, essentially "stocking" at $41and picking up anything below that; this buffers the bushel market, and in theory makes the demo reseller a viable strat, as you actually can pick up everything below a certain price, and then resell it a bit higher;
repeat x many goods and NP
nobody does that now because if your 300M bushels sold you'd be SOL; in this case though, you'd be perfectly fine, you'd have come away with lots of cash, which you can convert into any good you want now.... if the bushel market has gone crazy, fine, buy oil....
Finally did the signature thing.