Apr 18th 2016, 5:18:28
Thank you TDV for the attempt at interesting and civil conversation on current events. But sadly, civility was busted on the first reply... :(
Yes, the GOP will have a brokered convention. No, it will not be some kind of Machiavellian orchestration by some shadowy 'elites'. The process is very open and known for decades. State parties make rules for the selection of delegates to the national convention. At the national convention those delegates determine by majority vote who will be the party nominee.
Those state party rules are made and published well in advance of the primaries. It should not be a shock to find out that party rules tend to favor selecting delegates to the national convention that are reliable, consistent and long-term party members. Usually that is not a big issue - the nominee is decided well before the convention. But this year it makes a difference. And quite frankly, it is for this kind of reason we want to best, most consistent party members to REPRESENT the party members of the state at the convention.
And lets not forget the convention delegates also decide all the planks of the party platform and much else of importance.
Trump's complaints boil down to the fact he is getting beat. Cruz is better organized and, surprise, has more people going to republican events to elect republican delegates. And Cruz delegates are better known in the state party and can gather more support from people who vote. And, unlike some Trump delegate nominees, are actual REPUBLICANS and have been so for years.
So what do I expect to happen?
First, the now-famous 'rule 40' will not be changed and so the nominee will have to be Cruz or Trump.
The first vote will be a split. There will be time for delegates to discuss among themselves what they think is best. The 2d vote may also be split but stands a good chance of going for Cruz. If not the 2d then the 3d. The party leadership is not going to ram 10 votes on the first day and then demand an outsider. Or do some other hidden thing - the delegates own the power to decide the rules and the nominee. That is representative democracy at work.