BLIZZARD - Earth Empires Forum

Rasp

Member
961

Jan 26th 2015, 19:45:13

yeah I have some friends who are on lockdown in NYC until Wednesday, one of them is a pilot.

[16:18:00] znc-rasp: We can kill bushido, but not bushifo, zack, moriarty, ghost rider, or darkling
[16:18:07] Req: Is that all the same person?
[16:18:12] symba: yea
[16:18:25] mob: my kids are like dad why are you laughing so much

BladeEWG

Member
2191

Jan 26th 2015, 22:12:40

In support of my north eastern brothers and sisters I am officially closing Illinois as a sign of solidarity

Cerberus

Member

EE Patron
3849

Jan 26th 2015, 22:24:19

*points and laughs*

Geez, folks. :) Sorry to hear you are having such awful weather. That is exactly why I moved to Florida. :)

GO SUNSHINE!

I don't need anger management, people need to stop pissing me off!

bigdogcwg

Member
361

Jan 26th 2015, 22:27:31

I think all the northerners ought to be Snow Birds and move in with Cerberus.

:-)

Sure he has room at his dog haus

Marshal

Member
32,589

Jan 26th 2015, 22:35:05

not after you move in.

Patience: Yep, I'm with ELK and Marshal.

ELKronos: Patty is more hairy.

Gallery: K at least I am to my expectations now.

LadyGrizz boobies is fine

NOW3P: Morwen is a much harsher mistress than boredom....

Riddler

Member
1733

Jan 26th 2015, 23:01:18

Cerb probably has a panick attack at tmeps lower than 50 degrees F

Furious999

Member
1452

Jan 26th 2015, 23:04:07

I like storms (as long as the roof stays on).

Riddler

Member
1733

Jan 26th 2015, 23:37:34

I dislike tornadoes, though watching them is a marvelous thing, when an EF 5 takes out your entire town its a bit of a different story..I'd much rather liver through a blizzard than deal with that ever again, sheesh

flgatorboy89

Member
1620

Jan 26th 2015, 23:41:15

Yall go make your snowmen, Ill stick to my sand castles.
#SunnyAnd75 #FloridaBest

Jon
ZT, SoL

<jon> off to bed fluffbeater :p
<mrford> i dont beat fluffs
<mrford> i eat them
<mrford> gosh
<jon> well, fluffeater
<Kat> oookay....

mrford

Member
21,358

Jan 27th 2015, 0:20:13

Too many of you fluffs live with me in florida.

Swagger of a Chupacabra

[21:37:01] <&KILLERfluffY> when I was doing FA stuff for sof the person who gave me the longest angry rant was Mr Ford

breeze

Member
2124

Jan 27th 2015, 0:22:51

Everyone stay safe. Ah Florida, I'll be visiting in 18 days.

breeze

Member
2124

Jan 27th 2015, 0:25:00

Originally posted by BladeEWG:

In support of my north eastern brothers and sisters I am officially closing Illinois as a sign of solidarity

hahaha Blade. I will then close Indiana as well :)

KoHeartsGPA

Member

EE Patron
29,597

Jan 27th 2015, 0:31:35

Originally posted by breeze:

Originally posted by BladeEWG:

In support of my north eastern brothers and sisters I am officially closing Illinois as a sign of solidarity

hahaha Blade. I will then close Indiana as well :)

I should shut down Oregon as well to show solidarity :P

Mess with me you better kill me, or I'll just take your pride & joy and jack it up
(•_•)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6VRMGTwU4I
-=TSO~DKnights~ICD~XI~LaF=-

S.F. Giants 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series Champions, fluff YEAH!

Goofy

Member
415

Jan 27th 2015, 0:45:01

breeze, even if you close it my boss expects me to make it into work.

Blade, can't close it, I have to take my dad to the dr. over there.

Vic

Member
6543

Jan 27th 2015, 2:28:53

Originally posted by BUTTMAN:

http://www.boston.com/...m%3Asocialflow%3Afacebook

wind! travel bans! Logan Airport is closed as of 7pm tonight!

buttman I was over southie way earlier today and I was shocked by the flight patterns they had into logan. way lower than usual!
beacon hill looks like a ghost town right now

daspheebsie

Member
560

Jan 27th 2015, 3:00:21

Originally posted by Riddler:

It only takes one of those tornados to move far away. It takes the second one to be thankful that you moved.

Current SoLer
Retired LaF
One time at band camp Evo

Nekked

Member
885

Jan 27th 2015, 3:02:31

colleges closed?

boston looks like a ghost town then!

breeze

Member
2124

Jan 27th 2015, 4:24:29

Originally posted by Goofy:

breeze, even if you close it my boss expects me to make it into work.

Blade, can't close it, I have to take my dad to the dr. over there.

Yeah my boss expects me at work as well

KoHeartsGPA

Member

EE Patron
29,597

Jan 27th 2015, 6:24:45

Snowmobile time!!

BladeEWG

Member
2191

Jan 27th 2015, 13:46:30

Only 2 inches here BUT I'm still staying home
P@ss on it

LittleItaly

Game Moderator
Alliance, FFA, & Cooperation
2188

Jan 27th 2015, 14:04:50

No blizzard for Philly! :D

LittleItaly
SOL Vet
-Discord: LittleItaly#2905
-IRC: irc.scourge.se #sol
-Apply today @ http://sol.ghqnet.com for Alliance

Buch

Member
1712

Jan 27th 2015, 14:09:06

2 inches and youre staying home lol that's just flurries

Suicidal

Member
2258

Jan 27th 2015, 14:19:22

If it were not for changes in the weather, 95% of people would have nothing to talk about. ~BONUS~

BladeEWG

Member
2191

Jan 27th 2015, 15:49:26

Originally posted by Buch:

2 inches and youre staying home lol that's just flurries

It's a good enuf excuse for me!

MArs47

Member
249

Jan 27th 2015, 16:43:52

binus

#DKnights

KoHeartsGPA

Member

EE Patron
29,597

Jan 27th 2015, 18:21:02

Soooooo, when and where is this apocalyptic blizzard supposed to happen????

My popcorn went stale...

Raging Budda

Member
2139

Jan 27th 2015, 19:22:52

From a meteorlogists point of view, peole get slighly angry when you forecast a major storm and only a little bit happens. People get very agnry when you forecast 3" and instead they get 2 feet. The downside/impact of overforecasting is a lot less serial then underforecasting which would could result in thousands of people stuck on the road for 5+ hours in blizzard conditions.

Storms like this are always talked up like this because someone will get the 2 feet of snow/F4 tornado, just impossible to know where up until it is happening.

Your base is mine!

KoHeartsGPA

Member

EE Patron
29,597

Jan 27th 2015, 19:52:37

And how many people are going to get fired over shutting down airports and mass transit systems over 2 inches of snow? To put it in context it's barely enough to make a footprint LOL

Raging Budda

Member
2139

Jan 28th 2015, 0:33:30

LGA and JFK both got near a foot of snow, not a trifiling amount. If the storm tracked 80 miles or so to the west, those 18" plus amounts would have verified. Central-eastern CT had some high amounts.

http://forecast.weather.gov/...ssary=1&highlight=off

Areas west of Boston did get hit hard. Essex and Middlesex counties.

http://forecast.weather.gov/...ssary=1&highlight=off

The issue is that decision makers (local gov't/emergency managers) need 24+ hours of lead time to implement emergency plans. When the track of the worst snow shifted eastward MOnday afternoon, it was too late to change what had already been put in motion.

Your base is mine!

mrford

Member
21,358

Jan 28th 2015, 0:57:11

Originally posted by KoHeartsGPA:

And how many people are going to get fired over shutting down airports and mass transit systems over 2 inches of snow? To put it in context it's barely enough to make a footprint LOL

the storm formed 90 miles to the east of where they were expecting.

your attitude is a dangerous one. you want to blame meteorologists for making a mistake, what would you be saying if they hadnt warned the public and a massive storm had caught them unprepared like the ice storm last week?

meteorology isnt an exact science. there are still many things we dont know, and even with the best super computers no forecast is accurate. they will get fluff wrong. blaming them is a dangerous path to take and one i hope you will think twice about. erring on the side of caution is far better than one of indifference.

Swagger of a Chupacabra

[21:37:01] <&KILLERfluffY> when I was doing FA stuff for sof the person who gave me the longest angry rant was Mr Ford

Goofy

Member
415

Jan 28th 2015, 0:58:31

Originally posted by BladeEWG:

Originally posted by Buch:

2 inches and youre staying home lol that's just flurries

It's a good enuf excuse for me!

Yep, Blade just being a wussy.

BladeEWG

Member
2191

Jan 28th 2015, 2:01:28

A wussy that enjoyed a day off and not doing sh@t
;)

Raging Budda

Member
2139

Jan 28th 2015, 2:42:51

To clarify Ford's explanation, it isn't the physics that lead to most of the forecast erros, it is the lack and inaccuracy of observation data that is fed into models. Models are run on various spatial scales, some of the most refined national models are on a 4x4 km horizontal grid and 60 layers in the vertical. Meanwhile the data fed into the model is at best 1/30th of that resoultion, with very sparse urface observations over water and no upper-air. On top of that, even top of the line observing devices have errors, which adds to the "noise" in the models.

What this all leads to is important fields critical to storm intensity (such as 700 mb vertical motion) having error bars that are larger than the magnitude of the field being estimated, aka model says .5 (plus or minus) .9. The sign of the real value in the atmosphere is often a big difference.

Edited By: Raging Budda on Jan 28th 2015, 2:45:01

Your base is mine!

BUTTMAN

Member
748

Jan 28th 2015, 2:42:56

My town got 34 inches, most of that in a 10 hour span.. Took a personal day and spent most of it shovelling/snowblowing.. Even with an 8hp with 26 inch bucket blower it took all day

Raging Budda

Member
2139

Jan 28th 2015, 2:53:54

That being said, what the National Weather Service and private-sector meteorologists who deliver their forecasts to the public, is to better convey the uncertainity of the forecast. Winter storms are EXTREMELY difficult to forecast, and nearly IMPOSSIBLE to get right when precip types (snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain) are a question. This may sound werid, but this storm was on the easier side to forecast because the precip type was never a question. Only the placement of the core snow areas was misplaced, and that is being overlooked here.

Your base is mine!

KoHeartsGPA

Member

EE Patron
29,597

Jan 28th 2015, 2:56:10

Originally posted by mrford:

Originally posted by KoHeartsGPA:

And how many people are going to get fired over shutting down airports and mass transit systems over 2 inches of snow? To put it in context it's barely enough to make a footprint LOL

I do understand that it's not an exact science and I agree I have a dangerous side at times....maybe more so when I live on the other side of the country, but the media (not the meteorologist directly) blew the whole thing out of proportion a bit.

Raging Budda

Member
2139

Jan 28th 2015, 3:03:11

That is where better conveyance the uncertainty in the forecast is needed. Though people as a whole are often stupid, so they only listen to life/death type annoucements.

Your base is mine!

KoHeartsGPA

Member

EE Patron
29,597

Jan 28th 2015, 3:18:51

Yes I agree, if they do too many of these over estimations then people won't take them seriously on one big storm and people couldl be hurt, possibly even die :-(

mrford

Member
21,358

Jan 28th 2015, 3:24:08

there was no over estimation, just a misplacement of the location of the totals. that is important to point out. the storm was the intensity that was predicted, it was a really bad storm. it was just in the wrong spot thankfully.

you are implying that there is fault in the meteorologists and that is a really dangerous thing to imply. i hope they dont take your mentality to heart and continue doing their job without the fear of backlash.

Swagger of a Chupacabra

[21:37:01] <&KILLERfluffY> when I was doing FA stuff for sof the person who gave me the longest angry rant was Mr Ford

Raging Budda

Member
2139

Jan 28th 2015, 3:25:23

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20091224

Buried in that article, 9 people died in Oklahoma City due to an under-forecasted snowstorm, extroplate that to the NYC metro population.

Your base is mine!