Originally
posted by
Twain:
The Cardinals are pretty darn good, but I'm shocked at the idea that Rockman thinks the Brewers are #2. I guess looking at their pitching staff, it's plausible, but I'd put them #4, because I don't think they have the offense. The Pirates are the most interesting team though, that's for sure. It'll be interesting to see what higher expectations mean for their players. Last year they were looked at as the underdog with no expectations. So being picked by many to be #2 in the division and a reasonably likely wild card team will clearly be a new experience for them.
Let's go position by position
Catcher: Lucroy versus Martin/Sanchez versus Pena/Mesoraco
Advantage Brewers by a huge margin
First Base: Overbay/Reynolds versus Sanchez versus Votto
Advantage Reds by a ridiculous margin
Second Base: Gennett versus Walker versus Phillips
Advantage Reds by a decent margin
Shortstop: Segura versus Mercer versus Cozart
Advantage Brewers by a decent margin
Third Base: Ramirez versus Alvarez versus Frazier
About dead even between all three
Left Field: Davis versus Marte versus Ludwick
About even between Brewers and Pirates, Reds far behind
Center Field: Gomez versus McCutchen versus Hamilton
About even between Brewers and Pirates, Reds far behind
Right Field: Braun versus Bruce versus Snider
Brewers slightly ahead of Reds, and both way way ahead of Pirates
I consider the Brewers to have the clear best player at catcher and shotstop, and at all the OF positions, they're about tied with one team and far ahead of the other team. They're about even with the other teams at third base. With a healthy and unsuspended Braun, and Khris Davis and his .898 minor league OPS and .949 major league OPS in his very abbreviated rookie season being on the Brewers all year, they should score a lot more than last year. If they can fix their massive hole at 1B (seriously, Overbay was the best they can do??), they will have clearly the best lineup among the competitors for 2nd place in the division. Aside from 2B, where Gennett is still passable, 1B is their only weakness, and 1B is by far the easiest position to fill. If they're in the playoff mix still at the all-star break, look for them to grab a 1B via trade, and lock up the #2 spot in the division. But even with Overbay at 1B, I think their lineup is better than the Pirates lineup and equal to the Reds lineup.
When you look at the Pirates lineup, and look at the chance that their pitchers will regress from last year, I see them winning at least 10 games less than they did last year. That lineup is pretty horrible, especially if Marte's BB:K ratio dooms him, and Alvarez's bavg torpedoes his value. Aside from those two risky players, do any of the Pirates hitters have upside? Are any of their other hitters even average? McCutchen yes. The rest of the team no. Thus, when I look at the Pirates pitching staff and its likelihood of regressing, I am comfortable predicting the Pirates to finish under .500 this year.
EE Patron