Not a troll post. I notice that most players are still taught/still use TMBR as the preferred destocking strategy of choice. Am I the only one who thinks that a DMBR + public market jump always outperforms a TMBR finish?

The way I see it, the best options to destock are

1. DMBR + public market jump and reselling
2. Demo destock off public market
3. Theo destock off private market
4. TBA pending how I finish this set

"ALWAYS"

so if military prices are $300/nw u will still go DMBR + pub jump?

the right answer is "depends on the market situation"

I second hanlong's notion

also depends on how much you stocking per day vs how much stock you have vs how much you need to dump and how fast you can dump.

there's a few methods to destock. typically a person serious about their ending nw would calculate all options and easily figure out which one is the best and do that one.

i destocked as both demo and theo before and it was after calculating where i figure which route to take

i did notice a general trend that on lower acres demo > theo, but at higher acres theo > demo from past experiences...

[quote poster=hanlong; 12202; 214316]

actually in that case i would argue

1. you went mbr at the wrong time
2. dmbr is still better than tmbr

Also at certain stock ranges, if you have too many acres your costs are too high (you can of course drop acres but calculating what method is best at a given acreage doesn't tell you to do that).

Moral of the story is, I think it still depends on the market.

There is also the laziness factor, TMBR is fairly easy to do with only 1-2 logins per day.

Last set a Theo won, 3 Theo's in the top 5.
Two sets ago a Dem won followed by Theo's in 2-3-4

I'd say the jury is still out.

[quote poster=highrock; 12202; 214322]

Hindsight is 20/20. You can't be certain of how the market will perform.

Is your opinion based on past experiences or some manner of calculation?

i'll take my last reset's theo destock country.

if i destocked 4-5 days earlier on cheap pub military my stock would've been about 600M food smaller since i was stocking about 125M food a day at that point in time.

please let me know how a demo pub destock would've been better.

pretty much had the option of 1.8B food vs 1.2B food with 5 or 10 days left. let me know how can you fit in demo destock on 1.2B food and beat the theo destock of 1.8B food.

like i said you just need to calculate everything, there's no absolute "best" until you do the math =)

I'm arguing that TMBR is never optimal. None of the winners were ever TMBR. Note I'm not arguing about theo vs demo. That depends on the market. This is based on past experience and rough calculations. Laziness is not taken into account.

play by heart not a calculator

two of my 4 wins in alliance server was Theo Full MBR. what do you mean by "none were ever TMBR"?

that's 2 more wins than your "demo destock always" ;)

kj is that you? ;)

lol

probably would have done better as a DMBR. name me a situation in which a TMBR (not just theo) is better than any other destock.

45 nw is most easily reached by restarting a couple of days before set ends...

highrock: if food is $70 today, i would tell our biggest food stockers to go TMBR asap

and that's just one situation, i can go on if you want ;P

they should go DMBR instead. immediate reselling.

What if the sell prices of all goods monotonically decrease for the rest of the round?

with the way the game is now, another factor to consider would be what you spent your bonus on. in the past, there were no bonuses OR any standing orders and so tmbr was just strictly better than any demo resell option. nowadays there are more tricks you can do making demo more viable.


but i still think dmbr + pub jump is not always optimal. it always depends on what you're doing.

I would requalify the statement with "for smaller countries, demo reseller is always best". that could be true.

as long as prices are greater than the dmbr prices you will still do well. and let's talk feasible situations here

I'm finding it really hard not to troll you for this post highrock.

seriously i have yet to be given a situation where tmbr is optimal...

low land stocking as farmer perhaps?

Also Highrock if everyone did a public jump the market would suck which would in turn make theo the optimal choice :P

perhaps i should clarify. i believe tmbr is never optimal and that a dmbr + public jump is strictly better because the time spent jumping off the tmbr private market is time that is spent not generating income at all. i believe dmbr is a better mbr option because you can jump immediately and start reselling immediately so that you are generating more income. if there is one thing we know, it is that military prices on the public market increases monotonically at the end of the reset so you will always make income reselling. therefore, dmbr is always better than tmbr unless prices on the public market are cheaper than the dmbr private market, which almost never happens at the end of the reset. this is not to say that dmbr is better than a straight theo jump. im just saying that dmbr is always better than tmbr.

Why would you think that every strategy should destock in the same way? Do you only play one strategy or something?

no i dont think every strategy should destock the same way. im saying there is no situation in which tmbr is the best...

Sure you did:

i personally rather do theo.. if ur private jumping. that price doesnt faulter and ur praying someone doesnt undercut the market and keep the price low

i should clarify. those were not in order. i just listed destock strategies that at one time or another are better than tmbr. perhaps i shoulnt have numbered them.

Yes! I only play one strategy! :P

BOLTAR WANT BATTLE

that is all.

(bonus post!)

Don't listen to hanlong, everyone go Demo!

highrock, let me know how your Fascist Oiler -> Fascist MBR works this set.




but seriously, you cannot say which ever one is better than the other. there are just too many variables

ignore this

highrock, you're like a broken record. why, do you feel the need to convince people that DMBR is better?

sorry that msg was a response to hanlong that i typed on my phone but didnt get posted til an hour later for some reason

oh ok! you're forgiven =)

the easiest way to determine this would be to have 2 people with roughly identical countries compete at end of set. with roughly equal NW's and stocks, have one go TMBR and one go DMBR... see the result afterward.

I think off the top of my head A low land fasc farmer who will not be able to login very often or have the time necessary to do a proper efficient demo destock is best served with a TMBR destock. I realised this is not a country pushing for a top 5-10 spot.. but still...

damn right i do vamps.. have a country for 1 week and i already got a kill on kill run

dragonlance is using my idea now! :P

This has actually occurred. I don't know how similar mine and llaar's stocks ended up being, but in terms of land and strategy, we were pretty similar. See:

http://www.eestats.com/alliance/oldcountry/204/244

versus

http://www.eestats.com/alliance/oldcountry/204/50

agreed...TMBR is better for lazy/busy people...

I believe highrock's looking for an 'ideal' answer, not a factual one. Hence lazy play and inattentiveness towards one's country shouldn't be taken into account when answering this particular question.

However, being a rather lazy player...I appreciate your approach. ;)

Take the following simple scenario:

Public military turret prices:
$106 for the first 40 days of the set (equivalent to DMBR troops)
$160 for days 40-60

Bushel prices: constant $36

On day 40 (right before military prices jump), your country has:
-25k acres
-enough cs to switch almost instantly
-$20 B stock
-$1B daily income


The optimal DMBR destock is clearly to switch on day 40 and spend all stock on the public market. If we compare that to a not necessarily optimal TMBR destock of the same method, the TMBR ends up with a little more NW due to the extra NW from reselling over the next 20 days. Keep in mind that increasing land or number of days reselling and decreasing military prices or decreasing the initial stock all increase the final NW gap between TMBR and DMBR.

Clearly the optimal demo destock is to spend all stock (around $40B worth) in the final hour of the set, but that gives around $20M NW less than DMBR.

No MB theo isn't worth it because it's always better to delay destocking an extra day and to spend the extra stock on the public market, so no mb theo loses to demo.

So we have: TMBR > DMBR > Demo > No MB Theo

In a rather ridiculous scenario that is practically designed to make DMBR perform well.

TMBR is considerably faster to rebuild than DMBR as well. Laziness and asking other people to calc stuff for you is win!

interesting...do you have any calculations on what this gap is? I'd be interested to know.

also, did you take into account the 6% deduction from jumping off the public as a theo?

and also, you didn't take into account the possibility of reselling within the public market (buy low sell high) that a demo could do by holding military prices constant.

nevertheless, i agree that in your scenario, a TMBR is probably better. however, i would add that that is not how a TMBR destock is usually played. Every TMBR destocker i know jumps completely (or almost completely) off their private market instead of the public market.

So I guess my amended question is "why do people still destock as a TMBR solely off the private market?"

this is why you never win highrock ;P

you are too set in one ideal and won't adjust no matter what ;)

ha

i never win because i never get free and easy land.