Without the order
170 50 133 175...and 183

I'd throw 73 into the mix

Yeah #73 has a good shot. #133 for the win though.

A little premature, don't you think? Someone has confidence in food this set it seems.

what's food got to do with it?

He's a farmer.

Who is?

#210 should be in this discussion. Also, just looking around, I'm not really sure where the food is gonna come from this set. We could see a crazy food spike, but I may be wrong (I often am=))

me

Well i don't think techers are going to finish too well, prices and demand are already dropping. Hopefully food prices don't spike too much.

nope, us techers are taking a beating this set :(

Even at 40 food price is enough to reach top 5...with a bit of luck

Cashiers should be having a good set with the cheap tech, relatively cheap bushels, and decent military prices.

Commie destocks and theocracy destocks are so much more powerful than destocking as a Republic/Dictator. Democracy destock is probably weak too, depends on how early they try to jump off public.

I see 133, 179, and 144 as being frontrunners for the top 5 if they know how to destock. 133 has a 15k acre advantage and 179 and 144 have about a 10k acre advantage over 50. 210 is basically even with the top commie in land, but the strength of the Commie destock gives 133 a slight advantage over 210. If military prices fall far enough, 210 should get the advantage over 133, but until then I consider 133 to be the favorite. With military prices dropping now, 210 has the best economy in the game, but the commie destock can get around $200/nw, whereas a dictator destock will be lucky to get $250/nw.

I would say its a toss up between 50, 73 (the top techer), and 183 (the top farmer) for the last t5 spot - depending on how the market treats them all. I could see 59 or 170 sneaking in and making it 4 commies in the t5, but that is probably just me being overly influenced by all the fans of the Commie Indy destock that I talk to in LaF (like Bakku, Hanlong, Chewi, etc.).

So you don't think the dict will make top 5? I think it will.

I think top5 should be easy for the dict if military and tech prices remain depressed.

I do think it will make top 5. I think it will finish 2nd to 133. With 179 and 144 coming in 3rd and 4th, and then one of the last three coutries I mentioned taking the last spot.

That size of that guy's dict is pretty impressive.

I think if the dict can maintain his pace he should easily be second to 133.

#133 Old Man just got hit by no rain. I still think he's the favorite but that's a setback.

Meanwhile poor Industrial Engineer accidentally attacked a guy twice about 20 days apart. Guy was a turd and now Industrial's set took a major beating

ya that's rough, looks like a bunch of countries hit him, but 27 was the latest. More evidence that any double tapping can end poorly.

Industrial Engineer also "accidentally" had zero tanks and double tapped more than once. Surprised he got away with it this long.

Yeah, he's been DTing, I don't know why he had ZERO tanks and ZERO SDI. He was playing BTGoG, lol.

O_O


Is he stupid? DTing with no Tanks nor SDI!?!?!?!?

LOL!

I didn't realize he'd done it to several people

I would say rank 1 for 170 cause I have an idea of who plays it
But I don't understand why commie destock would be so good

Its simple reason, military having awesome price during end of game.

The main source of NW judge on
1st : military
2nd : tech
3rd : oil, land & etc

Oil?

I think probably because oil has a higher NW to cash? So in the final seconds of the game, if there is no military or tech to buy, buy the oil for that extra ooomph!

Ahhh ok,makes more sence now!

that's not it, commies don't sell at the end of the game during destocking.. it more resellers selling then.

@jedioda, commie destock is powerful because your mil price is basically upkeep & food costs divided by production per turn... so an upkeep of say $15m and production of 200k jets = $75 jets. not bad when there's no govt switch required.

Oh!

210,179,133,183, 59

With perhaps 170 or 144 or 73 Replacing 59 in 5th.

i don't think that's a very good example. You have to sell 15M dollars worth of jets just to take that turn, at $130/jet you're making 117, so to make 15M you need to sell 128k jets. So really you get 72K jets a turn, in turns of cost effectiveness that's 9.3M dollars worth of military per turn (priced at $130). This is also not counting what you are buying in food per turn (like 40-50k, probably).

When expenses are lower, commie is certainly stronger than other strats for stocking, which is why they place well in primary/express. Not so in alliance/ffa or so it seems to me.

210 170 183 50 133 and a bonus

jfotouhi, you misunderstand me - you're talking about stocking there... I'm talking about DEstocking so you are selling zero mil per turn (as I said in my post above - commies don't sell much in the final end-game), you are jumping and burning your stock.

comparing the price-per-unit to burning stock/destocking as other governments and it works out pretty favourably... this is my only point. i think it's a good one though - it's definitely helped me in the past.

133 210 170 179 144/50.

every time someone posts numbers i have to go look up who they are.

Im gonna say 133, 183, 210, 170, 73. Oh I forgot 50 by mistake, but i guess he's my #6.

133,179,59,170 all look good - I could see all four of those commie indies finishing t5. And 210 has a big enough land advantage that barring topfeeds, we should see a dictator in the top 5 at the end of the set.

50 (the top rep casher) and 183 (the top demo farmer) are gonna have to compete with bigger commie indies doing commie indy destocks. That's going to be real hard. Unless one of the top 4 indies gets chain topfed (like happened to 164), or doesn't know how to destock as a commie indy, then I think it will be 4 commie indies in the top 5. Military prices seem to have stabilized at the moment, they've stopped dropping. If military prices are in the 130-140 range, and then climb up once people start destocking, I don't think 50 or 183 makes top 5. And I don't think 210 will be close to winning.

Tech prices have fallen far enough that I do not think 73 or any other techers have a chance at top 5.



Commie Indy destock is powerful because as a commie indy, you use turns until your expenses plus food consumption minus your tax revenue combine (just called expenses, for simplicity) to be just shy of 150 times the number of jets created that turn. If you produce 200k jets per turn, you start your destock with maybe just 2 million in expenses, giving you a crazy $17/nw. Your expenses then increase close to linearly, but with 200k jets per turn production, you can use turns until you reach almost 30 million in expenses. Once you're at 30 million in combined expenses, its costing you $30 million to get 120k networth, which is equivalent to buying troops off your private market for $125.

If a commie indy uses up all its cash using turns until it gets expenses equal to 150 times the number of jets it creates, then it gets pretty close to $125/nw, depending on how close to positive income it was before it started destocking. With 84% military tech and 165% bus/res tech, it should be able to be pretty close to positive income before starting to destock.

Once its expenses get high enough, it uses the rest of its cash to buy troops and tanks off its private market at about $250/nw.

So if it uses up 1/2 of its stockpile just using turns, and then spends the rest of troops/tanks, it gets about $190/nw for its stockpile - which is about what a Demo MBR gets. If it uses up even larger of a portion of its stockpile using turns, it can get an even better $/nw for its stockpile.

I'm not sure on the math for how much stockpile a commie indy can drop per acre by just producing, but its pretty crazy how high it is.

Ok I understand now the power of commie for destock.
But those commie need to stock first and here it is not at their advantage ...So will it be a close reset again ???

Commie's don't really need to stock in primary to finish well. They can stock a little depending on the market though - but it won't change much if they do or not.

In other words, no? i.e., there'll be a big gap between the CIs and the rest?

Doubtful. The big dict casher should give them a run for their money. Maybe the rep and the smaller farmer and such.

Techers really have no chance this set =P

That dictator country really plays well this set.

I did a bit more math, and realized how long it takes a commie indy to jump. Buying out your PM gives 6.5 networth per acre per turn (not including the initial buyout of your PM). Playing your turns as a commie indy that is no longer selling military only gives you 2.4 networth per acre per turn. You get a much much nicer $/nw, so you don't need a big stockpile. But what you need is time.

Because the initial buyout of your PM can be so big, it is accurate to say that jumping off your private market is about 3x as fast as jumping by playing turns as a commie indy. It probably costs about 10x as much to get just 3x as much, but jumping 3x as fast makes up for that. Cashers and Farmers would have an extra week to stockpile compared to indies (with a much more favorable market, too). Its basically efficiency in cash versus efficiency in time.

I'm going to revise my prediction and predict just 2 commies in the top 5. They seem to have slowed down their growth at around 50k acres, and a 50k acre commie indy only makes about 6.6m networth of military a day. So if he starts jumping with 10 days left, he can only jump 66m networth from playing turns (assuming he has enough stockpile to not sell any military in the last 10 days of the set), the rest of his jump will have to come from buying troops & tanks off his PM. I think we'll see a Rep, Demo, Dictator, and two Commies in the top 5. Not sure which two commies, though.

The commies slowed down because the risk of topfeed and LG from fellow top 10 was very high for a few days. Everyone decided to take the safe route instead of trying for the extra 5-10k acres.

Is't it too early to play with more than 40 million nw ?

dunno. Looks like oldman is deliberately pushing up already, interesting

If he has the stock to pay for growth from now through the end of the set he'd be looking at a finish over 130m nw.

probably had trouble selling at these prices and ran turns to avoid overflow.

I had to do same today, was at 86/71 when I ran turns.