Sep 21st 2021, 22:45:08
it would be weird since most ppl would have jumped and left their countries in a state they cant really continue effectively from, say you are a fascist switching to theo for the jump, you are now a half-built theo farmer with bad techs and you'd have to sell your military off to afford to play turns again.
Assuming we know from the start that the set will be 33 days long tho, that will allow for FFO and perhaps cashers to grow to like a million acres or so. A 12k turn reset will completely obliterate the chances for a techer or indy to compete in the long run and the oil destock will be the only viable option in the end. Because of oil being purchaseable on the private market in express it will mean cashers and perhaps notably theo cashers will be quite competetive no matter the markets as buying oil at just under $300 at worst won't be terrible. I'd put my money on FFO's tho, oil will most certainly go above 200 and food will pass 50 so they should have an income in the lategame that surpasses a cashing casher's income per acre.
If I would venture a guess, unless heavy suicides or people killing the bots or something along those lines I would guess you get to around 1m acres and start having a real hard time continuing to grab because the bots are getting out of range permanently and the ones that dont have very high DR, so question is when you get there. I assume it will happen with like 5-7k turns left to play.
For reasons I shall not go into a FFOs jump potential increases by about 1.7 NW/ turn/ acre while stocking. So assuming we start stocking with 0 stock (which shouldn't happen really but this is the most grim scenario plausible) @ 1m acres, and we have 5-7k turns of stocking before the jump, we get:
10^6*5*10^3*1.7= 8.5B nw
10^6*7*10^3*1.7= 11.9B nw
the largest factor that is unknown here is what acreage we can really get up to as it will be worth it to grab well past 1m acres and well past really 11k turns(with 0 build cost), but humanitarians will stop us. What is likely going to happen is that the land growth becomes extremely small past a certain point where the top dogs do like 100 grabs a day on max DR bots, of the ones that are the highest NW because every acre is so damned valuable with having several thousands of turns left.
I think this would be incredibly boring for some reasons I shall not go into and also all those days with 100 grabs on the same 1-10 bots for sub-100 acres per hit.
The predicted stagnation in land will have an interesting effect tho: if you start a few days late you will probably still have a shot at catching up since you will stagnate your land gains at the same acreage as the others.