Mar 6th 2014, 19:59:31
60% of the people in Crimea are Russian, but a minority of them are actually Russian citizens. The Russian authourities have started to give out passports to whoever requests one though.
Things have esculated today though. The Crimean parliament has declared itself a Russian state today and will ask the people to vote via referendum on 16/03. Ukraine claim that the parliament is illegitimate, but the Crimean parliament claim that they are not bound to the Kievan government, because they are illegitimate. Russia has neither confirmed or denied that they'd accept Crimea as a new state, but its very likely they are pulling the strings. It's obvious that the people will vote for Russian statehood. Even if it was a free vote it would probably be the case, but given that the country is under Russian military control and Ukranian media has been replaced by Russian media, expect surprisingly high figures. What will most likely happen is that Crimea will join Russia in practice while most of the world will refuse to recognise it. The rest of Ukraine will probably be galvanised though and the EU and US will move closer to oppose any future Russian interests. I think Russia will pay a hefty price, I see Ukraine applying for Nato membership which is a red line for Moscow. This could lead to a future conflict.
The immediate danger is that the Ukranian soldiers are still in their bases in Crimea and the navy is blockaded there. There is definately the possibility of them refusing to surrender and the Russians assaulting them.