@kingme

Just look at news of EXPRESS last set on IRC. #expressnews

@vic
You’re right that real wars have variables weapon tech, walling, troop buys, timing. But the point of the math is to give a realistic baseline. Let's walk through it with your 1.2 million troop claim.

If the defender starts with 1.2 million troops and loses 8% per hit, the troop count shrinks exponentially:

This follows the formula:
1,200,000 × (0.92)^n < 100

Solving that gives:
n > log(100 / 1200000) / log(0.92) ≈ 110.7

So about 111 hits would reduce them from 1.2 million to under 100 troops assuming no replenishment.

Now the oil usage:
If you're using 100,000 troops per hit and oil use is 1 per 25 units, that's:
100,000 / 25 = 4,000 oil per hit
4,000 × 111 = 444,000 oil total

Even if they bought some troops during the war, you aren't burning through 5 to 10 million oil to kill someone unless you're wildly inefficient.

Also:
cd(1.2 million) 20x = ~530,000 troops
530,000 × 0.7 = ~371,000 troops after demo

So even without the kill happening in one burst, the math still heavily favors exponential troop loss.

@Vic

The example of 400k troops was just a reference point to show how oil costs scale when trying to kill a country. Obviously, a defender can have more troops or buy more during the fight, but the math still gives a reasonable starting point.

Even if the defender had 600k troops and you brought 100k per hit, each hit still costs 4,000 oil.
It takes about 110 to 115 hits to wipe them out, which comes out to around 460,000 oil total.
At $150 per barrel, that’s just under $70 million worth of oil. Not small, but definitely not massive compared to how much oil players try to sell.

Most players overproduce oil expecting huge demand, but in Express you just don’t need that much to kill someone, even a strong target.

So sure, your strat may have worked. But the real problem is that the oil market can’t handle 50 to 70 million barrels per player when multiple people are producing. That’s the part that’s worth a second look.

The math explains it better than isolated success stories ever will.

@niteil

you're having to buy from private bc oiler strat is not worth playing.

Actually, it doesn't take much oil to kill someone on Express.

Say the defender starts with 400k troops and loses 8% per hit. That means each time you hit, they lose 8% of what they have left.

After each hit, their troop count is reduced to 92% of the previous amount:

After 1 hit: 400,000 × 0.92 = 368,000
After 2 hits: 368,000 × 0.92 = 338,560
...and so on.

This forms a geometric sequence. To reduce someone from 400k to under 100 troops:

400,000 × (0.92)^n < 100
Take log of both sides:
n > log(100 / 400000) / log(0.92) ≈ 99

So it takes about 99 hits to get a country starting with 400k troops to under 100 troops (aka 4 oil).

Now for oil. If you're using 100k troops per hit and oil use is 1 oil per 25 units:

Each hit costs 100,000 / 25 = 4,000 oil
Total oil for 99 hits: 4,000 × 99 = 396,000 oil

At $150 per barrel, that's 396,000 × 150 = $59.4 million worth of oil.

That’s the cost to kill a well-defended country. For most countries with fewer troops, it’s even cheaper.

Bottom line: it doesn’t take that much oil. The math doesn’t lie.

Appreciate the mature response, Vic.

You're right that no strategy works every set. That’s not what I was arguing. I’m saying that even with competitive pricing, oil supply often sits untouched. When one player can produce 70 million barrels and barely sell 4 or 5 million at $150, it’s worth examining whether the mechanics are functioning as intended in Express.

If you have a strat that works in the current environment, great. But calling someone "retarded" instead of addressing the actual points just weakens your position.

You keep saying I "didn't debunk fluff" but you're not addressing what was actually said.

The point wasn't that no oil ever sells or that oiler can't work at all. The point was that in today’s Express server, with current bot behavior and player patterns, you can sit with 70 million oil at $150 and not even move 10% of it. That’s not theory that’s what happened last set.

You and others might have success running oil/farm hybrids, and that’s fine. But saying oil sells every set doesn’t refute the actual issue. There is a real demand gap in this server's economy unless someone coordinates buys or the bots change behavior.

If you’ve got scores that prove your strat works today, great. But don’t act like putting 40 million oil on at a reasonable price and seeing barely any movement isn’t evidence of something broken.

I didn't sidestep. I think you misread the discussion.

Slag was saying the absence of players buying oil doesnt mean a shortage of oil because players can buy oil on private market.

By me putting 40+ million oil on market at $150 users are not going to be buying oil on private. Not even THEO is getting it that cheap. That's what I meant by debunking.

This was back when i was still learning the game., over 10 years ago.

https://earthempires.com/...ess-talk/oil-34419#624909

Feel free to see my discovery in the making.

@vicrattlehead
I honestly don't aim for highest finishes. I experiment with different ideas. The entire LaF oil destock was my idea. Ask gains. Or better yet, check boards.

If I honestly tried one of the ideas that are already invented I'm pretty sure I would score higher than 99% of the players on here. Mainly because I can programmatically calculate much of the stuff on here.

I was actually working on a side project that will use AI literally to select the best move. I just haven't had much time to work on it & to be frank,. it would ruin the game if I completed it.

My discussion here is promote strategies which are at a severe disadvantage than the obvious Techer/Commie strategies.

The only money I spent my oil $ on were jets and buildings

You can’t drop land for 24hrs on Express that’s why i finished my attacks 28hrs b4 set ended.

No disrespect taken. I’m also thick skinned, and you, nite and slag are great netters so tbh I appreciate the discussion.

I finished my attacks a day early and I calculated a 50+ mil net finish by mbr. I finished the set by dropping land to 100acres, with 70 mil oil on hand that I couldn’t sell.

All I had to do was sell oil and I would have easily sold those units.

And that's IF i had the best unit in game (60 mil of them at $100) which isn't going to happen.

If I sold 40mil barrels of oil I'd make 30mil networth.

1. Each troop gives 0.5 networth
So to reach 30 million net:
30,000,000 / 0.5 = 60,000,000 troops

2. Each troop costs $100
To buy 60 million troops:
60,000,000 * 100 = $6,000,000,000 (cash needed)

3. You sell oil at $150 per barrel
So to get $6 billion:
6,000,000,000 / 150 = 40,000,000 barrels of oil


And I sold 4-5mil. Think about that.

You're correct Slag,. that information only you would know.

But if I offered oil at $150 an entire set and I only sell 4-5mil,. w/o barely any undercutting., I'm concluding players will buy that over private market.

supply/demand is precisely my point. there's barely any demand every set & that demand should be increased by the bots.

EXPRESS is nothing like Coop server in every way.

Am I misreading it? His link that he posted discusses 2 options:
Leave it as 5 days or switch to 7 days.

That certainly was not my accusation Slag. It's well known you're an OG of the game. When I look at scores your record exists over a year ago w/ a completely different market.

My comment about coordinating was in reference to today's EXPRESS market. The volume needed to be purchased in today's market would require another player to buy oil. Look at my country from last set and you'll see like 60mil oil on-hand.

My comments here are not attacking anyone or making accusations like such, I'm making it known that oiler strat is not viable on this server and that the bots should probably consume a % of them. The reason it's not an issue on other servers is bc players consume oil for destocking purposes which is not a viable strategy on this server bc there's simply not enough turns.

Now,. with the changes of adding an extra two days,. people may start to stock oil, I don't know.

I started this thread before that announcement was made.

Unless you coordinate someone to buy your oil,. it's not going to happen. (which is against rules).

Also comparing 30m all-x strat vs bots from 2+ years ago doesnt work. The bots are completely different today than they once were. These bots used to stockpile insane cash and all the non-tech govt could spend turns wacking those bots for like 30-40mil cash per hit.

And before you comment on saying all-x don't hit bots,. you could also back then rob banks for 9-10mil a turn.

I already debunked that theory last set.

I'll capture news at end of set; but, you'll see It's very low. Like I mentioned earlier., I created 70mil barrels last round and only 4-5mil sold at 150., maybe a few hrs in here & there where my stuff fell off market.

I bet if you go to market news and filter for oil you'd see what I'm saying is right.

On Stack Overflow, when a user flags a post (for being offensive, spam, not an answer, or needing moderator attention), the system tracks the flag and sends it to either community review queues or moderators depending on the type. (moderately offensive vs highly offensive)

Once reviewed, if the community or mods agree and take action, it's counted as a valid flag. If they disagree or leave the post up, it's considered a false flag.

Stack Overflow keeps track of this. Users who flag accurately build up a helpful flag count. But too many declined (false) flags can lead to restrictions, such as being temporarily unable to flag or having future flags carry less weight.

Example:
A user flags 100 posts.
If 90 of them result in action and 10 are declined, that’s a 90% flag accuracy.
But if they start flagging things they just personally dislike, and those flags get declined more often, the system starts to treat their flags as less trustworthy. Eventually, they may even lose the ability to flag altogether.

I guess I'm just making some suggestions for moderation on wrong thread.

For the forum moderation just use the same system StackOverflow uses. It then allows moderators to focus more on judgements made by the community rather than being a judge for every posts.

tbh,

99% of game moderation could be programmed into the game., where moderators could just focus on appeals.

@galleri

you will work overtime & like it.

I like this idea.

Bye TEAM. Not sure what made it a TEAM server; but, yeah, great memories back in 2015.

yeah,. this is exactly what ppl are doing, which makes my point that 1 oiler could supply entire server easily.

0 oil sold so far & look at how many atks in news, lol.

I was oiler last set. I created 70mil barrels of oil. I think i sold like 4mil total. The highest price I had it at was like $150.

:/

@Ratski., the laf eestats has several bugs and errors. You may have noticed it on some of the pages.

So the attack stats are not going to show accurately.

It's not cool to spread misinformation. I didn't hack anyone and I'm pretty sure someone told him it was me is probably why he's mad at me. I've been friends with MrFord since day 1 of me playing this game (over 15 years). I would never compromise his account. Allow the actual programmers to look at the evidence & stop making assumptions you have no idea what you're talking about.

I'm guilty of playing along on forums bc i thought it was just a joke, but that crap you guys posted on EE discord is some real backstabber stuff. Some of you snapshot your agenda and try to create some fake news. I won't address this issue anymore. It doesn't help the game.

Sure, I'm not bashing Slag here. I've taken his side when I thought he was right. This was just one of those situations where your memory was correct.

You guys are going overboard with this. What I assumed was a joke on forums is something you guys are actually accusing me of behind my back.

If Ford is done playing, that’s entirely his choice, and maybe he just wanted to make a dramatic exit. What I think most people are trying to express is concern about how verbal abuse is handled going forward. In-game behavior and forum discussions should probably be treated differently, especially if community feedback matters. I’m assuming it does, since not every player gets their own “XXXX is banned” thread.

I mean, how many times did Boltar break the verbal conduct rules and still get to keep playing?

May i also note,. they also started a petition to get Red removed as mod too.
https://earthempires.com/...tition-30219?t=1394830823

Elders all got purpled by trying to 15v1 and couldnt kill me that set. They were even trying to atk me with their restarted purple countries.
https://earthempires.com/...s-lame-36581?t=1435467160

The next set they started a petition to get Tella removed as mod and instead Tella quit the game.
https://earthempires.com/...server-36583?t=1435564279

This is when Red introduced the new rules when he was mod:
https://www.earthempires.com/...ver-everyone-read-30216/1

There absolutely were players deleted as a result of 10v1 on TEAMS. It was just as Req has described it during Tela’s rule.

All you have to do is go back to Rybka’s set and you’ll see the purple.

There’s really no way to prevent suicide on ALLIANCE. As it’s been suggested, you may want to play on COOPERATION since you cannot attack players there.

Considering how long he’s played the game couldn’t you just disable his ability to communicate within the game instead?

Taking players away from the game punishes everyone. Why not just use the mute button in this case?

If you get banned for evading ban how do you get permanently banned?

It’s a shame he’s perma banned., he’s one of the hallmark players of the game.

lmao @ SF

<3